Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Porto vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a02cbdf01247650cd26f52544dc712dd69ecbd1920541e4edfd521e3b78f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 2,718$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.23 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 75c | 1,857$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.24 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.2 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 24c | 1,117$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 1,082$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.87 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 775.75$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 745.53$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 73c | 738.59$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.42 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 615.46$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 595.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.91 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 71c | 567.42$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 74c | 350$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1c26backed Over | 72c | 300.56$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Over | 74c | 282.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…f8a0backed Over | 75c | 254.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 70c | 245$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Over | 62c | 233.37$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 206.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 64c | 206.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 33c | 203.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 64c | 191.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 26c | 157.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…8a93backed Over | 74c | 155.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 27c | 145.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 144.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 27c | 133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 65c | 118.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…5cb5backed Over | 74c | 116.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 59c | 101.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…869abacked Over | 74c | 100.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…fef9backed Over | 77c | 88.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 66c | 82.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 29c | 81.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 74c | 74.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Over | 74c | 72.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Over | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4175…c01fbacked Under | 34c | 56.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 63c | 55.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 25c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 69c | 48.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 61c | 40.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 34c | 37.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 39c | 27.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 73c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 73c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 55cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Porto vs. Gil Vicente FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.