MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c22f7288af96b550d5512a87b18f35f32b5a409eae7598dccdc94d955836c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 70c | 5,444$3,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.78 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 4,049$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 23c | 3,902$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 14c | 2,700$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 19c | 838.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.33 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 34c | 826.2$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.91 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 819$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 712$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 297$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 34c | 170.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 34c | 138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 15c | 126.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Over | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 93.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed Under | 61c | 82.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Over | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 67.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 66c | 32.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.