MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf82ad25de5a04c7b021508d026cf81a0c00f13273e73e709b769d1c099f314c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 12,000$4,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,438.95 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 9,816$6,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,806.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 4c | 4,598$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 5c | 2,520$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 1c | 2,048$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 1c | 1,174$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…54a7backed Houston Astros | 66c | 758.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Houston Astros | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 7c | 418.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 67c | 409.66$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 356$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Houston Astros | 56c | 333.41$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 311.19$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 72c | 260.33$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…42cabacked Houston Astros | 76c | 168.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 96.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 75c | 83.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 76.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 71.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 64.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Houston Astros | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 41.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Houston Astros | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 24.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Houston Astros | 63c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.