MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d26ea038d81f8eb1a037e2f7913e9ada78d8592f16cdd5b89f561fc1ecf4cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 12,417$6,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,501.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 8,778$4,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646.93 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 45c | 7,366$3,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 2,393$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Over | 52c | 960$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 53c | 950.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 33c | 911.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.12 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 48c | 810.85$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.21 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 49c | 480.61$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.45 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Over | 32c | 446.13$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 326.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 251.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 235.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…3bb9backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…be2dbacked Under | 60c | 149.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 48c | 111.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 101.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 43c | 96.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 58c | 93.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 55c | 74.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Over | 56c | 74.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Over | 56c | 74.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Over | 56c | 73.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Over | 56c | 73.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 61.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…a6e8backed Under | 39c | 44.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Over | 57c | 28.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 54c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 51c | 25.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 49c | 24.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 57c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.