MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde68971cb2e705246d576b457ee00edae8f943c7599595e8cdeb8674fa58be55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 11,927$7,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,182.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 15c | 9,629$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 5c | 6,041$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…2e6dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 5,927$3,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 3,528$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.72 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Houston Astros | 35c | 2,308$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.69 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 35c | 1,360$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros | 35c | 1,312$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.27 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros | 13c | 1,230$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 13c | 1,016$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 18c | 767.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 21c | 556.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 16c | 541.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 34c | 527.27$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 357$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 36c | 341$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 276$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 36c | 188.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Houston Astros | 27c | 183.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 161.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 25c | 159.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Houston Astros | 35c | 158.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 152.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 127.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Houston Astros | 28c | 119.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 106.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…7f2abacked Houston Astros | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros | 37c | 91.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 19c | 84.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Houston Astros | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Houston Astros | 35c | 79.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 69.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Houston Astros | 36c | 67.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Houston Astros | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 39.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 37.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 35.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 32.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 15.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.