MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81fc85648f86b8f6a80fd23f6393a58ed7402ba1ad61ef571f37a0353344b6c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 2,484$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.07 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 55c | 2,069$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.96 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 299.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Yes | 47c | 256.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 53c | 234.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 55c | 204.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.