TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Team Liquid, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$346,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,640 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid57c59,311$34,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,10054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b37…3b3ebacked Tundra Esports41c40,000$16,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,699.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Tundra Esports57c26,978$15,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,592.7228748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee5…71b7backed Team Liquid48c17,100$8,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,257.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Tundra Esports40c12,041$4,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,222.8727645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Tundra Esports39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.971060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Liquid48c8,063$3,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.611839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Tundra Esports56c7,947$4,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,464.4315047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Tundra Esports45c6,478$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.6810741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Tundra Esports39c6,400$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,877.493644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Tundra Esports60c6,202$3,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.248253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked Team Liquid45c6,167$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8005839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports54c6,075$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.0386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Tundra Esports42c6,010$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.791060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Team Liquid59c5,872$3,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.2911947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Liquid47c5,149$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.6917353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid10c5,131$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.112,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid58c4,867$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.0932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Liquid60c4,213$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.8215946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Liquid57c4,179$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.0364744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Tundra Esports40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.989839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Tundra Esports43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.954245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports40c3,758$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.4360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e18…85dfbacked Team Liquid36c3,603$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…2d20backed Team Liquid61c3,552$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.541963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Tundra Esports54c3,510$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.0423546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid61c3,500$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.519557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Tundra Esports40c3,457$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.4215544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Tundra Esports52c3,456$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.861435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports68c3,369$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.8755751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Tundra Esports40c3,050$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.994443.2%19 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Tundra Esports43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Liquid61c2,928$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80023746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Liquid61c2,623$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60029160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid26c2,589$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.621,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Tundra Esports42c2,300$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.935747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Liquid39c2,071$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Tundra Esports51c2,033$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.7936851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Team Liquid57c2,002$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.146650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid26c1,994$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.4577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Liquid55c1,800$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99014648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Liquid61c1,700$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Liquid60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Tundra Esports40c1,650$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Team Liquid37c1,605$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.893528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Team Liquid51c1,546$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.518950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked Team Liquid59c1,525$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.65955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Team Liquid60c1,394$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.7722945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Liquid59c1,320$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.5819943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c4…abaebacked Tundra Esports67c1,315$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.87560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9780…bbefbacked Team Liquid61c1,311$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…400cbacked Tundra Esports42c1,298$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.71533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Tundra Esports39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.035648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cc…72afbacked Team Liquid40c1,231$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.55425.9%14 W · 40 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e1a…61a8backed Team Liquid4c1,212$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.34425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-64%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tundra Esports70c1,189$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.4330138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Team Liquid45c1,118$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.819651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid38c1,093$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42043647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Tundra Esports50c1,088$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.910141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Team Liquid62c1,061$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.651650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Liquid38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38020642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Team Liquid60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Tundra Esports39c987.36$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.293551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Team Liquid61c973.02$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.546066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Team Liquid60c944.18$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.517750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1eae…bd51backed Team Liquid56c926.93$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid34c871.89$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.291,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Tundra Esports41c834.32$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.1716440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Tundra Esports66c833.88$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8826957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Team Liquid61c823.11$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008164.2%52 W · 29 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Liquid38c795.28$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Tundra Esports40c785.6$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.3618550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300d…b3a0backed Team Liquid36c766.67$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Liquid32c743.97$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.876725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Team Liquid18c723$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.314121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44f1…fa00backed Team Liquid36c719.98$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.092433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Tundra Esports42c714.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2920827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Tundra Esports44c710.6$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.3636054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid46c656.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Tundra Esports61c631.15$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.1522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc76…3af1backed Team Liquid36c623.62$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.541442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Liquid58c523.99$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Tundra Esports73c518.55$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Team Liquid60c504.04$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.381735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Liquid60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Tundra Esports38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Tundra Esports40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Team Liquid60c478.33$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2874533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Team Liquid44c450.71$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1995450%27 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+34.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Liquid60c445.9$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2667560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Tundra Esports61c441.33$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9148352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3798…c20ebacked Team Liquid61c440.52$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.572650%13 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid32c433.42$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.679430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Team Liquid61c422$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.42966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Tundra Esports49c409.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.714148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf401…5cacbacked Team Liquid3c404.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Liquid60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24073743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid59c399.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2760…ef06backed Team Liquid61c341.44$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2810759.8%64 W · 43 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f6f…5284backed Team Liquid60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.