Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
NCAA Tournament: No. 16 seed to pull off an upset?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a0f9728aa00980592cae98feda1541f9dcacd5a00e1d08e1b14da842500e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,555 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 3c | 16,346$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.91 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea4…8123backed Yes | 4c | 5,155$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 5,065$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…94a5backed Yes | 4c | 3,900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 3,199$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.34 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7f…861bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,088$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…410cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,817$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…6d8dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,786$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…3831backed Yes | 4c | 2,529$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…59cabacked Yes | 4c | 2,319$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2268…aff6backed Yes | 5c | 2,260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…4c45backed Yes | 5c | 1,909$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…e057backed Yes | 4c | 1,566$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,486$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,453$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 1,235$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…2438backed Yes | 4c | 1,105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,055$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Yes | 4c | 1,011$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 4c | 999.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…aa6cbacked Yes | 4c | 900$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 885$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 861.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11cc…d1debacked Yes | 4c | 854.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 4c | 851.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…9dc9backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 654.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 599.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes | 4c | 544.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77a…daf8backed Yes | 3c | 523.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 522.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 517$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…6695backed Yes | 4c | 463.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…af50backed Yes | 4c | 461.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Yes | 3c | 440$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 386.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 385.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb6…f6f7backed Yes | 4c | 359$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…dd82backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37f…333bbacked Yes | 3c | 312.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 276.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…112dbacked Yes | 5c | 220.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…51ccbacked Yes | 16c | 168.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 165.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 17c | 96.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 15c | 79.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…51d6backed Yes | 43c | 46.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.