Fifa International · resolved market
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f8a47fbb4e940fdc9850ca2ff2b019cd11a6ea9dc588ee7c05143654ce233a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 9c | 715.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 8c | 650.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 417.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 298.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 22c | 213.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Yes | 72c | 201.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 78c | 166.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 155.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 8c | 140.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 129.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 15c | 127.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 80c | 114.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 27c | 110.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 104$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 19c | 103.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 35c | 101.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked No | 30c | 75.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 32c | 75.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…dc6abacked Yes | 67c | 74.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2674…faafbacked Yes | 72c | 51.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 28c | 43.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 29.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 58c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.