Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88181d0ed23317d480d3439d0a7ead17e3ce0a540f3ef85c2ddd9d23249d11d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 2,485$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 6c | 1,780$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 37c | 798.94$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.83 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 737.6$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.48 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 71c | 550$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 515.87$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 464.45$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 7c | 372.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 355.34$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 39c | 330.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.56 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 31c | 329.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.12 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 307.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.4 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 287.63$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 269.35$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.07 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 58c | 268.59$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 255.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 242.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 5c | 241.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 36c | 238.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.23 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 236.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 231.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 229.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 35c | 220.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 204.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 45c | 200.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 199.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 188.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 70c | 186.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 32c | 179.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 56c | 178.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 176.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 174.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 170$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 59c | 159.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 151.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 149.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 136.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 130.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 123$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 116.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 101.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 97.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 90.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 57c | 86.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 82.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 81.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 31c | 78.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 74.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 74.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 71c | 70.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 69.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 64.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 60.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 21c | 57.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 55.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 54.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 71c | 45.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 49c | 44.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 66c | 36.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…59bbbacked Yes | 33c | 36.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 35.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 73c | 34.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 66c | 33.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 31.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 29.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 68c | 29.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 66c | 28.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 36c | 28.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 27.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…18aebacked No | 61c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 68c | 21.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.