Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb456d8c52839450b9ddd97ca55d6a297a4f7fe8b7d9ceb23f35a3fa78939ab5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 1,577$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.62 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 705.35$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.9 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…1ddfbacked No | 46c | 529.98$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 62c | 523.78$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 39c | 468.38$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 421.42$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.49 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 78c | 386.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 268.91$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 47c | 260$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 257$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 41c | 234.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 231.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 43c | 220.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 196.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 51c | 186.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 37c | 181.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed Yes | 55c | 180.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 180.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 180.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Yes | 55c | 178.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 18c | 171.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 163.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 158.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 61c | 151$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 76c | 147.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 41c | 146.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 142.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 47c | 141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 140.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 53c | 139.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 74c | 134.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 134.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 132.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 131.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 39c | 129$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 124$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 117.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 11c | 117.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 64c | 116.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 110.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 36c | 110.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 37c | 107.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 104.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 95.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 93.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 90.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 25c | 90.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 41c | 86.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 52c | 85.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 81.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 79.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 35c | 78.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 77.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 19c | 75.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 75.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 74.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 30c | 72.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 68.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 63c | 67.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 63.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 38c | 61.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 61.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 43c | 55.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed No | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 26c | 52.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 43c | 52.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 46.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 49c | 45.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 44.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 46c | 44.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 46c | 41.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 61c | 41.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 39.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 39.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 38.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 61c | 37.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 61c | 37.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 58c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 56c | 33.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 66c | 33.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.