Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88291041732e1b084f84b1cfe7325365051834da307afc166346f39f272b04a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 13c | 576.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 345$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 22c | 343$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…8cf5backed Yes | 31c | 319.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 27c | 275.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 241.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 238.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 221.25$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 207.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 6c | 173.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 26c | 171.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 18c | 161.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 29c | 148.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 18c | 140.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 122.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 122.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 12c | 116.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 116.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 30c | 111.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 11c | 106.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 97.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 96.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 84.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 67.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 34c | 63.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 62.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 37c | 62.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 77c | 61.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 60.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 33c | 60.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 55.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 51.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 48.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 78c | 48.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 78c | 47.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 31c | 43.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 31c | 43.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 52c | 42.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 42.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 31c | 42.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 37c | 40.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 71c | 37.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…1739backed Yes | 45c | 33.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 29.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…c6c3backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 26.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 70c | 22.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 55c | 21.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 68c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked No | 72c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 65c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 78c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.