Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x270aa078a59d220ac8bea14d59ab842465def3e5062fbf5d31c8627811876645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 45c | 915.12$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.31 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 348.56$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 317.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 288.46$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 30c | 278.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 263.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 72c | 258.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 251$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 201.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 196.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 156.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 70c | 153.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 139.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 138.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 127$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 126.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 123.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 122.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 121.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 110.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 68c | 101.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 100.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 100.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 99.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 66c | 99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 98.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 91.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 36c | 85.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 84.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 31c | 77.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 37c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 67c | 69.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…3ef5backed Yes | 31c | 63.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 35c | 57.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 54.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 36c | 52.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 64c | 50.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 47.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 44.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 68c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 42.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 38.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 34c | 38.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 35.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 34.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 34.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 70c | 33.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 33.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed Yes | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 72c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 46c | 28.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 26.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 57c | 22.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 19.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 78c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…254cbacked Yes | 72c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked Yes | 72c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…243bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.