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MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Astros, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$523,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$529,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles50c280,826$140,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140,047.7238043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Astros50c111,300$55,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,65022852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Astros50c50,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,00055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Astros50c33,332$16,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,50648254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros50c28,413$14,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,209.631,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Astros51c23,650$12,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,647.084436.4%16 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles49c15,726$7,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,697.951,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros51c15,521$7,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,606.221,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles39c15,203$5,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,931.7554345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Astros52c13,753$7,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.391030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Orioles21c13,255$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.541,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Astros51c11,111$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.3960249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Astros50c9,098$4,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.8430255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Astros50c8,974$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48735952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Orioles49c8,490$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.3763152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Astros50c8,080$4,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,04025453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Astros50c7,829$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.9438751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Astros50c4,224$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,11219649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Orioles50c4,224$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11212857%73 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Astros50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.218748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros51c3,915$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.932,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Astros49c3,492$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.641,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Orioles48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44011653.4%62 W · 54 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Orioles5c2,930$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles54c2,871$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.3880955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles51c2,808$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.1433845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Astros50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles51c2,401$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.643949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles9c2,175$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.689,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…3386backed Orioles49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles19c1,600$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.836,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Orioles27c1,526$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.8343946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfccf…12e0backed Orioles49c1,188$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.12944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2272…c03bbacked Astros51c1,180$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafae…4b33backed Astros51c1,170$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x931e…8547backed Orioles49c1,162$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.38683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+91.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8570…52b5backed Astros51c1,137$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682a…92c8backed Orioles49c1,133$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles33c1,112$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.641,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2f…59b1backed Orioles49c1,082$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c4…fe7bbacked Astros51c1,078$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1be…19b7backed Astros50c1,010$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Orioles51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5109947.5%47 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Orioles50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Astros50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Orioles1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Orioles50c902.28$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.149550.5%48 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Astros50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles41c900$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.583248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Astros50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…45e8backed Orioles51c776.79$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Orioles51c703.74$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9125454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Orioles51c686.27$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35053448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles30c666.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76cc…5e4ebacked Astros50c610$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3051952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4be…98fbbacked Orioles50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Astros51c599.65$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.2230842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles43c599.62$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7121747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Astros49c583.12$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6670946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c67…4622backed Astros45c576.47$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.06785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick43cpaid+116.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Orioles3c575.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.865862%12 W · 574 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Astros52c553.17$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.5212558.4%73 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Orioles8c545.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.961,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Orioles51c524$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2426650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x684a…1b69backed Astros52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Orioles54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27013151.9%68 W · 63 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e48…0783backed Orioles51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c04cbacked Astros50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Astros50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25043654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles48c496.31$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.231,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3c…2807backed Astros50c496$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2481957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x391e…5b83backed Orioles51c494.12$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles48c492.61$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4551347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Astros78c457.33$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.841,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Astros50c434.38$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.1912949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Astros51c406$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.9424253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Astros51c388.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3912355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Astros50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15031347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b0…7c8cbacked Orioles51c282.35$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee1b…7b0ebacked Astros50c281.82$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.911241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Astros64c277.02$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.789725.8%25 W · 72 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Orioles23c230$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.927733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Orioles6c217$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5547745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Orioles7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Astros49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023,31446.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10066751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10012459.7%74 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4779…211fbacked Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Orioles49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2019…a6a9backed Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Orioles49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3236…8f9ebacked Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd6…966cbacked Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Orioles49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc94…72debacked Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b8…729cbacked Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ba6…8340backed Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c32…3b86backed Astros51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987251.4%37 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.