Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88cca1b973f5eb4eb6b28e9601e60b802db57e14b8f4d18124d0e96776753dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Yes | 57c | 8,841$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,841.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 50c | 5,077$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.39 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 55c | 3,316$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.08 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 3,123$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.69 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 24c | 2,039$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.94 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 12c | 1,865$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.4 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,220$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.09 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 31c | 1,216$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.85 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 41c | 1,062$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.41 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 23c | 1,009$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.98 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 26c | 654.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.09 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 50c | 567.22$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.77 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 518.68$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.72 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Yes | 50c | 498.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 446.48$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.94 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 42c | 393.53$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 63c | 388.01$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.76 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 359.98$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.39 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 33c | 255$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 53c | 245.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 234.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 44c | 222.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…88c5backed Yes | 38c | 188.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…2641backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 76c | 154$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 151$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 39c | 136.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 40c | 134.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 56c | 134.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 58c | 122.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 36c | 120.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked Yes | 12c | 120.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…6fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 117.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Yes | 16c | 115.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 107.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 65c | 100.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 64c | 84.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 61c | 73.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 30c | 70.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 66c | 58.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 64c | 58.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…e56cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 31c | 48.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 47.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 30c | 45.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 56c | 44.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 29c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 42.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 30c | 42.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed No | 54c | 40.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 63c | 32.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 16.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 72c | 16.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.