NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896f6865236ee3437973bd58f4dd045452b4175da52c615e62d0d2c338b3a159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Nuggets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Jazz | 43c | 13,131$5,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,526.35 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 57c | 11,637$6,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,665.8 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Nuggets | 58c | 11,502$6,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,671.36 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Jazz | 44c | 1,930$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.22 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets | 55c | 1,596$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.53 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Nuggets | 37c | 1,113$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.02 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 69c | 1,003$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nuggets | 55c | 978.41$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.51 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…6312backed Jazz | 46c | 812.3$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.64 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Jazz | 45c | 808$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.4 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets | 57c | 788.2$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.89 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Jazz | 43c | 725$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.25 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets | 57c | 685.56$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.77 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Jazz | 52c | 510.21$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.91 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Nuggets | 57c | 506.99$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nuggets | 50c | 412.35$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.17 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 57c | 404.72$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Nuggets | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Nuggets | 57c | 382$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…50b7backed Nuggets | 55c | 365.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Jazz | 44c | 292.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Nuggets | 56c | 205.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Jazz | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Nuggets | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets | 57c | 184$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Jazz | 43c | 176.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Jazz | 45c | 173.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Jazz | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Jazz | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…b3c4backed Jazz | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Jazz | 69c | 140.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Jazz | 46c | 131$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Jazz | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz | 48c | 103.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Nuggets | 54c | 94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Nuggets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Nuggets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 89.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Jazz | 44c | 89.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets | 41c | 68.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked Jazz | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Nuggets | 55c | 61.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Jazz | 44c | 57.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nuggets | 40c | 55.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Jazz | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Nuggets | 52c | 53.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Jazz | 48c | 52.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 135 | 41.5%56 W · 79 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Jazz | 60c | 50.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 222 | 49.5%110 W · 112 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Jazz | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Nuggets | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Jazz | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Nuggets | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Jazz | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…b6d0backed Jazz | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…d308backed Jazz | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Nuggets | 47c | 31.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Nuggets | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Jazz | 46c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…48c6backed Nuggets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Nuggets | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…7379backed Nuggets | 58c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f4…e04fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Jazz | 53c | 23.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Nuggets | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Jazz | 46c | 22.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Jazz | 64c | 21.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Jazz | 64c | 21.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Jazz | 65c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Jazz | 65c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…1c9fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Jazz | 66c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Nuggets | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Jazz won
- Brice Sensabaugh: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 249.5Over won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-18.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Nuggets (-19.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.