NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 249.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f49d3aaa4d7bad27ed4338e7dafca140975a155d95789cc87ef16f5b137616f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over	43c	25,492$10,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,530.16	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Under	57c	20,840$11,887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,887.43	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Under	41c	6,000$2,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,459.95	129	45.7%59 W · 70 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	57c	3,667$2,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,089.95	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	61c	3,516$2,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,387.86	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Under	57c	2,000$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,140	113	58.4%66 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	42c	1,046$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$605.49	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Under	41c	961.67$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.88	161	39.8%64 W · 97 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	43c	946.14$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.72	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	57c	600$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	50c	529.5$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.41	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	142	48.6%69 W · 73 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Over	43c	348.83$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.83	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over	61c	318.28$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.22	564	47.9%270 W · 294 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Over	61c	317.58$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.95	445	51.2%228 W · 217 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	61c	313.18$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.23	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	62c	246.75$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.38	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4638…aa0ebacked Under	24c	210.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over	58c	193.41$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.23	516	47.5%245 W · 271 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Over	58c	193.41$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.23	135	41.5%56 W · 79 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over	58c	184.17$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.35	414	49.3%204 W · 210 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf1…5776backed Over	70c	142.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.39	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Under	46c	109.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	142	37.3%53 W · 89 L	-11.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over	46c	100.37$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.8	421	53%223 W · 198 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Over	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	-5.5wins	-0.14per pick	70cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Under	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	693	37.8%262 W · 431 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	43c	97$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.29	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Under	42c	96.01$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26e8…1c01backed Under	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	-6.8wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	71.93$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.9	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Over	43c	65$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.05	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	46c	50.71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	54c	50.37$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Over	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	330	30.9%102 W · 228 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3b…fbabbacked Under	58c	48.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	80	57.5%46 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4175…87a0backed Over	77c	45.45$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.45	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Over	57c	39$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.77	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Over	58c	36.44$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Over	58c	34.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	182	42.9%78 W · 104 L	-10.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Over	60c	30.09$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	169	48.5%82 W · 87 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over	64c	27.05$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.73	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over	57c	27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.61	786	39.2%308 W · 478 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd337…7564backed Under	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a9…7876backed Under	58c	23.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Over	58c	22.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.65	81	34.6%28 W · 53 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	56c	19.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over	73c	17.61$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.84	193	60.1%116 W · 77 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 249.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event