Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x899b6218cad75bba3f2f4dcf05e03a54d5c50028ae5fdf84567bdd0a275baee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,113$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.44 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 77c | 536.25$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 520.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 448.71$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 334.7$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed Yes | 32c | 260.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 249.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 8c | 235.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 216.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 195.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 65c | 186.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 39c | 186.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 178.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 144.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 18c | 135.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 68c | 120.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 118.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 109.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 95.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 95.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 22c | 68.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 65.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 64.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 59.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 69c | 44.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 44.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 42.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 69c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 33.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 72c | 32.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 28.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 73c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 77c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 74c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 77c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 71c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.