Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b04fca042ea8f2ff61aefda6f0f4a00b67d7e3c4a6a0aa0efa13f89e8a6f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 640.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 409$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 62c | 399.96$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 357.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 43c | 349.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 59c | 329.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 277.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…4d3abacked Yes | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…a1e6backed Yes | 9c | 221.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 217.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 189$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 188.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 180.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 14c | 178.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 169$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 31c | 165.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 64c | 164.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 158.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 155.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 29c | 148.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 141.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 140.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 66c | 131.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd370…dc49backed Yes | 9c | 123.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 17c | 122.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 29c | 122.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 117.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 66c | 116.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 113.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…0158backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 69c | 103.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 102.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 90.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 89.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 89.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 25c | 76.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 19c | 74.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 74.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 29c | 72.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 70.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 29c | 70.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 26c | 70.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 67.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 66.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 72c | 64.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 64.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 62.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 60.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 56.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 54.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 54.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 21c | 52.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 70c | 51.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 47.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 47.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 47.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 47.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 65c | 45.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 37c | 45.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 44.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 39c | 41.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 39.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484e…df42backed Yes | 38c | 38.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 37.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 33.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 30c | 33.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes | 44c | 31.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 31.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 59c | 30.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 33c | 30.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 65c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 72c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.