Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd86f3712e116a7f996e05f97a8eccda30f7e32ce2d0d8f95a94a023251162e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,925$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.13 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 506.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 41c | 450.51$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 58c | 399.93$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…b524backed Yes | 62c | 342.06$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 4c | 339.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 76c | 299.19$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 54c | 296.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 63c | 259.93$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 259.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 258.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.16 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…4d3abacked Yes | 42c | 250$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 239.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 26c | 231.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 223.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed No | 68c | 219.68$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 208.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 205.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 199.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 197.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 15c | 183.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 60c | 172.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 63c | 158.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…7156backed Yes | 74c | 139.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 139.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 48c | 137.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 130.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 120.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 33c | 120.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 42c | 116.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 37c | 114.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 109.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 107.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 99.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 95.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 94.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 42c | 92.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 54c | 91.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 89.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 61c | 88.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 58c | 82.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 81.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…f44bbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 79.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 79.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 79c | 76.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 75.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…0158backed Yes | 41c | 73.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed Yes | 72c | 71.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 55c | 71.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 71c | 70.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 69.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 41c | 68.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 38c | 68.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 67.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 62.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 34c | 62.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 25c | 62.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 33c | 61.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 42c | 59.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 54.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 53.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 53c | 53.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 29c | 51.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 36c | 51.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 45c | 50.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 48.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 23c | 46.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 32c | 46.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…230ebacked Yes | 64c | 45.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 56c | 44.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 43.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 41.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 38c | 41.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 41.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 63c | 40.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 40.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.