TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Phillies vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Phillies, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$508,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe785…e106backed Nationals44c255,674$111,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,707.564854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Phillies56c115,350$64,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,59622852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Nationals46c108,120$49,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,362.3643247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Phillies54c30,000$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,2009749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Phillies57c30,000$17,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,099.9912650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Phillies54c28,009$15,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,013.671,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Phillies55c26,470$14,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,568.091,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Phillies56c25,536$14,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,300.1635952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Phillies56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,20055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Phillies57c17,679$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,99928646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Phillies57c13,680$7,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,797.613065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Phillies62c13,050$8,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,107.0925453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Phillies56c10,800$6,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,04845248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Phillies53c9,367$4,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.5254345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Nationals36c7,814$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.8941747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Phillies57c5,427$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.391,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3447…3495backed Nationals44c5,015$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.42650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Nationals47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65022047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies55c4,966$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.052,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Phillies50c4,951$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,463.8638444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Phillies51c4,896$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Phillies57c4,640$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.816352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Phillies56c4,600$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.9911553%61 W · 54 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Nationals44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.4519649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Phillies56c4,444$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.6398149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98fd…b575backed Phillies56c4,123$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.871747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Phillies55c3,785$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.573352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Nationals60c3,764$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.733845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Nationals44c3,570$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.77955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies53c2,930$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.172,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Phillies56c2,065$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.538042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Phillies56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013553.3%72 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Phillies56c1,702$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.8423455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Nationals42c1,671$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.6136047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Phillies58c1,612$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.0424253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Phillies20c1,609$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.0347745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals44c1,531$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Nationals43c1,504$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.0111449.1%56 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05eb…fe56backed Phillies60c1,089$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Phillies57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Nationals43c991.86$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.3614148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Phillies53c900$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47726650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4950…0031backed Nationals44c879.28$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.335644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Nationals44c861$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+64.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals44c720.41$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.4170946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Phillies56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39295850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x63d8…b86abacked Nationals43c694.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.26966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Phillies54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Phillies56c534.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.591,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Phillies56c533.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2680955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5383…cb45backed Phillies55c500$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.56048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Phillies56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9930850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals40c473.07$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8451347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Phillies19c472.82$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3532754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Phillies56c460$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.616651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0704…6ab8backed Phillies25c440$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.81181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick62cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Phillies21c425.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7460052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Nationals55c404.2$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6619356.5%109 W · 84 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c0…823bbacked Nationals44c395.45$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Phillies21c390$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3296133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Phillies58c365$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.734051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Phillies22c364.67$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals42c352.75$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.591,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Phillies57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6f…e87cbacked Phillies57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals41c349.98$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Phillies24c346.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1643946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Phillies33c338.55$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.224,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Phillies57c320$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.41,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Nationals42c312.48$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3280680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Phillies22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6645732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals44c295.25$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.341,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Nationals47c261.85$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.785834.5%20 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Phillies53c261.85$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7856451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Phillies62c258.06$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609947.5%47 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals43c232.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8140548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Phillies57c230.07$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.141,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.272,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Nationals44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2711051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…7205backed Phillies57c206.26$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.07850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe363…be8bbacked Phillies57c203.51$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Phillies56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11224951.8%129 W · 120 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Nationals49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10268769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b5a…d1bbbacked Nationals42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1165250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e9…4ef4backed Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165056%28 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Nationals43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1148051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2019…a6a9backed Nationals43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1147653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7752…490bbacked Nationals42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1165349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3236…8f9ebacked Nationals42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1167757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd6…966cbacked Nationals43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1147346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea7…b555backed Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb033…88e6backed Phillies57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Nationals43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1147546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…c9cabacked Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbbf…f78fbacked Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165139.2%20 W · 31 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6caa…d782backed Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea21…9033backed Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165250%26 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfa…2fa8backed Phillies58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b8…729cbacked Nationals42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1167960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.