TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,554 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x950a…b380backed Yes0c10,180$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c976.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.219011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c700$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No64c666.22$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.723652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c602.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2326312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c549.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes36c402.6$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7110338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes32c374.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1814250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes29c366.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.175113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes5c353.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.172429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes36c287.97$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe191…b901backed No69c212.86$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.66366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes20c207.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.68220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c187.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.291,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa962…8978backed Yes58c172.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes34c168.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.99728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1773…f4e3backed Yes20c152.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.261631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed No70c142.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed No80c125.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.16966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No68c123.6$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.552774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No61c111$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.291338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes30c109.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd374…5544backed No62c109.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes37c98.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.412835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf7…10e4backed No59c82.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes26c81.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.216833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08f5…28e0backed Yes42c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1c0…511ebacked No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd73b…6b37backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e85…40c4backed No67c59.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b7…c5babacked Yes34c59.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed No61c48.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.78560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…91c0backed No64c46.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be1…b701backed Yes59c42.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x301c…3660backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed No30c39.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes53c37.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62c1…06f7backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…5f23backed Yes51c29.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a6…6fa0backed No68c29.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.291136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd4…8598backed No76c26.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No61c25.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.858551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7478…4003backed No79c25.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24866.7%32 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x665a…8f47backed No63c20.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked Yes49c20.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6777…7c90backed No69c15.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.