WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a2d999dbdcf23e348a2a713c1c291c5268d50a3aaaa87e0411132fd06fcdcb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Las Vegas Aces, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 15c | 3,119$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.21 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 67c | 2,802$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.42 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 2,041$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.46 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 10c | 1,453$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 1,112$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.67 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 543.32$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.06 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 479.77$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 7c | 419.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 323.79$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Indiana Fever | 59c | 322.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Las Vegas Aces | 41c | 310.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Las Vegas Aces | 27c | 300.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Indiana Fever | 57c | 163$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Las Vegas Aces | 13c | 129.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 32c | 88.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Las Vegas Aces | 27c | 52.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 50.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 45.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 37.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 35.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Indiana Fever | 60c | 31.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…43b2backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 30.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 26.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 24.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 24.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc54…26edbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 21.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc0…3ab3backed Indiana Fever | 78c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas AcesIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.