Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a3eaf955f3d9b777ddb4de563f0ad1e970afeda0297ae3c4ec8f72ccec9d99d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Illinois Fighting Illini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 15,041$7,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,520.34 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 8,488$4,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,244.22 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 5,008$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.06 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 4,950$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.7 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 3,965$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.12 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…7b94backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 3,873$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 2,514$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 2,429$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.28 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 2,325$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.6 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 2,199$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.49 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 1,120$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.73 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 1,019$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.5 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 985.3$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.65 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 979.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.14 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 646.5$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.78 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 578.43$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.39 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 388.87$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 383.76$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.51 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…3f00backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 383.48$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 291.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.86 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 252.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 196.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 180.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 153.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa207…8461backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 145.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 126.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 104.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…7873backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 93.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 87.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 78.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 59.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 59.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…0fd0backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 59.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 56.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x453f…6b3bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 54.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…a5dabacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 49.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 48.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 48.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 44.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 41.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 35.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 32.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 32.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cbd5backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…3d0cbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 21.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 157.5Under won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 158.5Under won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 159.5Under won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 160.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.