Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a789dbef41bf72341d7f48677ddfe71572b90cae6d4ce054a2cc500f64ad201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,247$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 22c | 715.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…9023backed Yes | 4c | 583.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed No | 79c | 335.37$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 208.62$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…fcf0backed Yes | 27c | 195.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 23c | 165.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 77c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 153.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 149.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 78c | 114.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Yes | 61c | 114.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 70c | 105.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 28c | 88.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked No | 64c | 86.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 82.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 72c | 63.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 63.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 71c | 59.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 78c | 49.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 29c | 48.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 74c | 42.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed No | 72c | 37.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 77c | 32.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…57c6backed No | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?this page
- 1win to win 2-0?Yes won
- Nigma Galaxy vs 1win: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.