Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ceb08b5db6bbd06bc0e849942e8601dd1a973435d2fdec76652a4bfbf11050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6efe…8b8ebacked Yes | 37c | 11,731$4,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,340.86 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…79a2backed No | 61c | 1,850$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 61c | 1,672$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.21 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 62c | 1,343$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.22 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed No | 64c | 1,335$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.17 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed No | 64c | 1,251$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,234$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.73 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 36c | 1,090$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.53 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Yes | 68c | 1,016$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.12 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 20c | 772.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.49 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked No | 65c | 755.77$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 34c | 586.03$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.78 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 64c | 579.99$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 2c | 546.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 59c | 501$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.96 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked No | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 62c | 411.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.67 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…789bbacked No | 63c | 401$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.63 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked No | 64c | 317.09$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Yes | 35c | 286$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 29c | 277.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Yes | 36c | 247.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.22 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 243.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 203.91$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 17c | 195.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked No | 65c | 192.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 64c | 172.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 71c | 171.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 156.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 36c | 155.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 146$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed No | 63c | 143.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 65c | 94.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 55c | 88.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Yes | 37c | 72.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 62c | 68.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 63.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Yes | 74c | 61.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 50c | 59.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Yes | 56c | 51.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 62c | 46.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed No | 37c | 42.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 65c | 32.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 46c | 30.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…0042backed Yes | 42c | 25.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 25.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 64c | 24.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed No | 61c | 20.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…4122backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Yes | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?No won
- Nigma Galaxy vs 1win: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.