MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b1d3df0714f13774a5b395f9edc1859b9dd2b637e16f26e94a2704a3dc0d6bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Houston Astros, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Houston Astros | 46c | 51,900$23,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,867.89 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics | 54c | 47,382$25,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,795.93 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Athletics | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 54c | 2,574$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 1,711$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Athletics | 55c | 1,062$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.95 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Houston Astros | 46c | 1,009$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.97 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 54c | 1,005$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 52c | 831.57$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.18 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Houston Astros | 20c | 599.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Houston Astros | 44c | 547.47$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 54c | 518.5$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Athletics | 55c | 512.69$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Athletics | 55c | 498.29$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.23 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 374.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Athletics | 56c | 347.45$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Athletics | 55c | 318.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 74c | 300.32$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 68c | 262.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 57c | 250.32$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Houston Astros | 34c | 246.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…942bbacked Athletics | 55c | 203.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Athletics | 56c | 176.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 27c | 173.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Houston Astros | 45c | 150.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Athletics | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics | 56c | 142.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 56c | 140.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Athletics | 56c | 138.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Athletics | 56c | 138.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Athletics | 56c | 138.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Houston Astros | 42c | 137.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Athletics | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 130.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Athletics | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics | 56c | 117.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Houston Astros | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics | 73c | 108.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 95.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 22c | 80.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Houston Astros | 44c | 74.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Athletics | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Athletics | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Athletics | 54c | 49.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Athletics | 54c | 47.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Athletics | 54c | 47.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 38c | 44.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros | 45c | 42.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Athletics | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Athletics | 54c | 38.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Athletics | 66c | 37.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Athletics | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Houston Astros | 52c | 29.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Houston Astros | 41c | 27.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Houston Astros | 41c | 27.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 54c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Houston Astros | 45c | 23.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Athletics | 60c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Athletics | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Athletics | 55c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…08f3backed Athletics | 55c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.