Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b8d25d8e4850665a366960fe8b8e9c8af1ead4d2b8bbc546ac0aa7f60c530ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 29c | 5,172$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 71c | 3,542$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.23 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 70c | 856.16$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 73c | 826.87$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.07 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 74c | 676.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.92 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 592$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.16 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 71c | 497.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 27c | 381.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 30c | 333.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 79c | 259.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 71c | 199.95$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…c769backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 76c | 110.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…4e58backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 27c | 98.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 72c | 78.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…7a72backed No | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…c656backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 72.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 27c | 72.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0363…d67abacked Yes | 28c | 70.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 27c | 66.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…8ac4backed No | 78c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…a800backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.