TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Diamondbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Diamondbacksof Guardians, Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$409,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$403,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,649 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd38a…8d26backed Guardians50c209,140$103,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,532.517652.8%93 W · 83 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Diamondbacks51c141,768$72,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,387.0138751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Guardians48c97,751$46,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,920.3138043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Diamondbacks50c41,000$20,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,50022852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Diamondbacks51c26,500$13,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,98555053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Diamondbacks51c24,190$12,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,852.8623455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Diamondbacks56c22,580$12,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,021.717156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks52c16,511$8,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,003.831,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Diamondbacks28c15,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,80019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Diamondbacks51c14,420$7,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,065.820850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Diamondbacks51c8,200$4,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0181,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f73…8d13backed Guardians50c8,065$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37be…c646backed Diamondbacks62c6,156$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.856450%32 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks53c5,904$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.029,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Diamondbacks49c5,523$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.9721747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Diamondbacks73c4,748$3,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.6725454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Diamondbacks52c4,254$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.9235952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks52c3,274$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.782,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Diamondbacks55c3,040$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36845248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Diamondbacks51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47021538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Diamondbacks51c2,644$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.7754345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Diamondbacks53c2,134$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.131,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Guardians55c1,970$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.7312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Diamondbacks52c1,670$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.61,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c11…02c8backed Diamondbacks57c1,502$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.838944.9%40 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Diamondbacks52c1,342$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.211,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Guardians46c1,320$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1193240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diamondbacks52c1,176$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.773352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Diamondbacks45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1131248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Guardians11c1,100$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7895930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Guardians43c1,081$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46530842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Guardians1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Guardians47c999.97$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.981,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Diamondbacks57c985.33$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.381,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Guardians41c977$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.5733845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Diamondbacks54c900$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.3957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Guardians40c898$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.2951953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Guardians47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37683248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Guardians46c749.99$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34530850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Guardians59c622.08$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.189947.5%47 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Guardians42c595.21$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9939041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Diamondbacks52c588.35$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.661,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Diamondbacks57c570$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4196133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Diamondbacks53c565.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.2763052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Guardians36c562.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023248.3%112 W · 120 L-13.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Diamondbacks52c530.59$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1926650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Diamondbacks50c517$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.51,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Guardians48c505.96$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8611051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Diamondbacks52c499.46$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7410143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Guardians47c469.44$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6451347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Diamondbacks54c395.05$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3980955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…cc9abacked Guardians9c376.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.531421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Guardians44c367.25$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.661,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Guardians47c350$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Guardians12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3616934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Guardians46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13818249.5%90 W · 92 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Guardians49c299.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1473,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Guardians47c292.11$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2970946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Diamondbacks52c288.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.921,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Guardians5c286.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3379740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…4345backed Diamondbacks51c283.78$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0518848.4%91 W · 97 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Diamondbacks49c280.8$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6370841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Diamondbacks54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.784748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Guardians43c265$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.791,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Guardians48c249.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Guardians20c244.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8622312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Guardians46c230.36$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9643247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Diamondbacks53c225.51$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5110459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Guardians45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Guardians47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1140548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Guardians47c211.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.924444.3%108 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b6…ba49backed Diamondbacks50c208.62$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.629158.2%53 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Guardians48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005242.3%22 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Diamondbacks52c206.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4873149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Guardians49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Diamondbacks50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10032651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Guardians48c167.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.631,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Diamondbacks60c166.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7517244.8%77 W · 95 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Diamondbacks50c156$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7828447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f14…bca0backed Guardians51c153$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.031060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8822…73e9backed Diamondbacks49c153$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7a…b24cbacked Diamondbacks52c152$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fba…03ffbacked Guardians48c152$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed Guardians50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756354%34 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Diamondbacks51c137.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2226056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Diamondbacks57c131.8$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Diamondbacks51c131.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae3f…12fabacked Guardians15c129.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4112025.8%31 W · 89 L-15.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Diamondbacks54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1178454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc655…8467backed Diamondbacks52c110.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2824351.4%125 W · 118 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Diamondbacks58c107.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5218545.9%85 W · 100 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Guardians47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025551%130 W · 125 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Guardians47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4766751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Guardians46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4612857%73 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015543.9%68 W · 87 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db7…d372backed Guardians37c93.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3513149.6%65 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.