Australia to score first vs. Egypt?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf947d84e411645c597957c6b99c5af8a1c7f6a914c92f1264bd57b867bf0c6

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,672 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	7c	13,941$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$907.79	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No	62c	5,000$3,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,901.71	241	44.8%108 W · 133 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	38c	2,480$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.46	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	38c	1,238$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.44	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	60c	1,143$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.76	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No	62c	884.83$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.73	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No	60c	760.47$453 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.75	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	62c	719.99$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.6	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b91…8e2abacked Yes	38c	526.32$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	59c	348.24$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.58	460	47.2%217 W · 243 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	37c	325.14$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.3	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Yes	38c	302.96$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.12	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Yes	38c	263.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	152	49.3%75 W · 77 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1907…85b9backed Yes	38c	263.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	92	39.1%36 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	38c	174$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.12	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	37c	139.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee9…68fbbacked Yes	38c	131.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes	40c	131.46$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.6	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e63…d208backed Yes	39c	128$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-70%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes	38c	106.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.37	50	20%10 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Yes	38c	105.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	165	31.5%52 W · 113 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes	38c	105.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	454	24.7%112 W · 342 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	61c	105$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	129	34.1%44 W · 85 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes	37c	93.78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.7	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ca…ba07backed Yes	38c	84.21$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfd…67aabacked Yes	38c	78.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No	63c	78.2$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.03	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf4…5bc1backed Yes	41c	73.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24f6…7351backed Yes	41c	72.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No	61c	70.4$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.16	648	50.6%328 W · 320 L	-13.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ae…dc73backed Yes	38c	65.79$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d7…f41abacked No	63c	65.25$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.14	257	48.6%125 W · 132 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed No	63c	63.8$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.61	106	36.8%39 W · 67 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4021…23b0backed No	63c	63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.31	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	202	27.2%55 W · 147 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No	65c	57$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.77	357	34.5%123 W · 234 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed No	59c	53.02$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	235	58.3%137 W · 98 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-59%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes	37c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85ef…a41fbacked Yes	40c	48.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1573…8aacbacked Yes	41c	48.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	220	41.4%91 W · 129 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	75c	45.94$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.57	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cf…c08abacked Yes	38c	45.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	61c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	656	51.7%339 W · 317 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed Yes	38c	39.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	150	24%36 W · 114 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked No	61c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…ba99backed Yes	40c	35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	153	35.3%54 W · 99 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd0e…6a41backed Yes	38c	33.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	67c	32.25$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Yes	33c	32.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes	34c	32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	326	39%127 W · 199 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17bb…6506backed Yes	38c	28.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	76	35.5%27 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed No	59c	27.71$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.36	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked No	59c	27.71$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.36	981	34.8%341 W · 640 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No	58c	27.38$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	597	52.1%311 W · 286 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34cc…769cbacked Yes	41c	26.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bff…3682backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed No	62c	23.19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.85	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebf8…92b8backed No	63c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	144	61.1%88 W · 56 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3211…bcf7backed No	63c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	369	53.9%199 W · 170 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb3…ca8bbacked No	63c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	255	49%125 W · 130 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ea…3955backed No	63c	20.3$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.51	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked No	63c	20.24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.49	111	55%61 W · 50 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	81	67.9%55 W · 26 L	+6.2wins	+0.08per pick	60cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3735…1525backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-37%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Australia to score first vs. Egypt?this page
Australia vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first?No won
Egypt to score first vs. Australia?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Australia to score first vs. Egypt?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event