Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c3860b9fe4ac28fa02ef6018b4640c64a1b74d036af88bec7124553c2eda56d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Manchester Cityof Manchester City, Liverpool
Resolved: Nov 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $125,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,392 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2129…4222backed Liverpool	40c	34,248$13,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,768.26	357	58%207 W · 150 L	+12.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Manchester City	51c	30,504$15,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,955.85	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3e…2360backed Manchester City	51c	18,769$9,572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,196.81	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.50per pick	51cpaid	+98%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x747b…26febacked Liverpool	49c	18,144$8,891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,890.56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+46%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…5366backed Manchester City	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,899.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Liverpool	51c	9,816$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bec…129abacked Manchester City	51c	8,934$4,556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,377.66	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+114.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x243b…64f2backed Liverpool	49c	8,770$4,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,297.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked Liverpool	50c	7,999$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,999.68	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Manchester City	49c	6,882$3,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,509.98	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Liverpool	49c	4,164$2,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,040.14	211	54.5%115 W · 96 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Liverpool	42c	3,593$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	109	62.4%68 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	459	36.2%166 W · 293 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Manchester City	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City	54c	1,522$823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$698.62	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf1d2…8867backed Liverpool	45c	1,216$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Liverpool	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	342	51.8%177 W · 165 L	+21.9wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Liverpool	9c	999$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Manchester City	55c	910.35$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.35	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb86e…7395backed Manchester City	51c	664.71$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.71	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Manchester City	49c	606.64$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.61	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde8b…fdb0backed Liverpool	51c	580$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.8	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0740…df2fbacked Liverpool	49c	510.2$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Manchester City	65c	416.23$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.23	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+44%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x250e…b699backed Manchester City	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…431abacked Liverpool	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Manchester City	50c	371.63$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.82	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Liverpool	12c	358.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Liverpool	49c	343.5$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.32	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Liverpool	51c	303.92$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc47d…8688backed Liverpool	51c	280$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c9…4b20backed Manchester City	50c	251$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.5	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-17%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfc…0fc2backed Liverpool	50c	250.44$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.22	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Liverpool	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	152	63.2%96 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Liverpool	51c	197.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Liverpool	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5744…9d5dbacked Liverpool	50c	176$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Manchester City	63c	156.57$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.79	214	63.1%135 W · 79 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Manchester City	49c	149.97$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.49	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2d…1100backed Liverpool	50c	140$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357f…1106backed Manchester City	50c	136$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Liverpool	12c	127.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40cc…f83abacked Liverpool	38c	126.3$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.39	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8877…1fa6backed Manchester City	52c	125.92$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	47cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Liverpool	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Manchester City	50c	105$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbe…3857backed Liverpool	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	68.6%24 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…7173backed Liverpool	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Liverpool	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4600…78aabacked Liverpool	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbe…b1b1backed Liverpool	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	122	50%61 W · 61 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e6…1abcbacked Liverpool	50c	99.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc38…eef3backed Liverpool	51c	98.08$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	58cpaid	-59%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77ed…ba0dbacked Liverpool	51c	97.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.97	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Liverpool	50c	91.03$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.49	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9d…7a24backed Manchester City	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed Liverpool	50c	66$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	172	54.1%93 W · 79 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Liverpool	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Liverpool	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Liverpool	48c	47.52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	228	34.2%78 W · 150 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Liverpool	48c	44.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a26…7300backed Liverpool	32c	43.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Liverpool	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+32%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x390c…75b5backed Liverpool	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.35per pick	55cpaid	-71%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd0…be19backed Liverpool	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x922d…f049backed Manchester City	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…9747backed Liverpool	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb063…c9d1backed Liverpool	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…c1dfbacked Manchester City	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	63	61.9%39 W · 24 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Liverpool	51c	38.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Manchester City	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	375	54.9%206 W · 169 L	+14.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Manchester City	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	60	45%27 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Liverpool	48c	28.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	175	49.1%86 W · 89 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Liverpool	49c	24.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586b…caa6backed Liverpool	49c	22.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Liverpool	50c	20.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	96	50%48 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdfb…b890backed Manchester City	52c	20.08$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.64	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c5…67b4backed Liverpool	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb757…aaa2backed Liverpool	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b6d…b2c6backed Manchester City	52c	19.62$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x937c…78c3backed Manchester City	53c	19.02$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.94	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)this page
Manchester City vs. Liverpool: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Manchester City vs. Liverpool: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event