TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Manchester City vs. Liverpool: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under55c25,293$13,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,312.4521853.2%116 W · 102 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over45c17,981$8,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,104.5320039.5%79 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Over43c17,934$7,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,741.586046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Under57c14,257$8,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,130.371782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Under55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25010751.4%55 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over44c3,248$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.125527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over46c2,739$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.226,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a78…4353backed Under56c2,400$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ad…ba8abacked Under57c2,282$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.053842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc1…a09ebacked Over44c2,279$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over42c2,271$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.142524%6 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+59.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over34c1,711$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.9635758%207 W · 150 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Under65c1,623$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.995352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe036…44e6backed Under72c1,383$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over44c1,118$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.887357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68d6…cfb9backed Over45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027955.9%156 W · 123 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7b…e6b7backed Under56c1,102$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Under55c999.96$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.985345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Under57c881.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.6815347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb391…8939backed Under56c842$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Over44c841.55$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over60c835.32$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023926.4%63 W · 176 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f9…2200backed Over45c835.18$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Under57c833.22$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.282733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed Over45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-61.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under72c596.59$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4830050.7%152 W · 148 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Over39c500$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1942441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Under56c471.43$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.431637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb73b…7155backed Under64c470.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb65e…431abacked Over45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Over28c443.65$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.898646.5%40 W · 46 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over54c339.84$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9229343.7%128 W · 165 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under55c333$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8521548.8%105 W · 110 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb139…add0backed Over55c330$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Over45c311.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…b699backed Over44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Under55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13517337.6%65 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Under56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Under57c242.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.112556%14 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+44%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Over45c229$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4512753.5%68 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010343.7%45 W · 58 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x55b9…876cbacked Over44c211.36$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under54c208.42$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1837036.2%134 W · 236 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Under76c196.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.13053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb967…65edbacked Under57c183.26$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Under56c180.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0320425%51 W · 153 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26e…d280backed Over59c179.13$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3910031%31 W · 69 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x49ad…b1bbbacked Over43c163.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.712657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under56c154$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.768740.2%35 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Under55c149.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.55442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e0…20e4backed Over24c149.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over46c148.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3123435.9%84 W · 150 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Under68c147.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.171656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Over69c145.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.792516%4 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-61.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under61c141$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0428246.1%130 W · 152 L-12.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df2…8621backed Over35c139.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357f…1106backed Under55c136$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x346a…45a1backed Under67c134.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over33c134.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.337737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce7f…de96backed Under58c133.29$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.29966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8f…ed19backed Under58c130.45$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…ec99backed Over44c123.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a9…caccbacked Under65c119.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over42c119$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Under55c115$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.052250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0864…df33backed Over45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509958.6%58 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Over57c110$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf399…287ebacked Over42c101.96$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.831323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…a408backed Over45c100.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.443348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Under44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7b…0179backed Under56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb82…4bf9backed Under57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5244…23d9backed Over47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Under63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.146048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Under56c99.94$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9718052.2%94 W · 86 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Under56c98.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Under56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Under56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2955654.9%305 W · 251 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9b…d718backed Under56c88.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.815100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Under57c88.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0335743.1%154 W · 203 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634b…363bbacked Over35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbe…b1b1backed Under59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8512250%61 W · 61 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Under59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.753464.7%22 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e1d…4d41backed Under62c82.55$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.553100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f6…368cbacked Under57c80.86$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.772142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a90…e630backed Over63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over45c77.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65d3…d153backed Under56c75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Over42c72.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.583262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Under56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa856…3964backed Under56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+94.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Under56c71.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.181747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2599…61cdbacked Under32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e35…da51backed Over43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.