Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c4357d3a5e545946bb01f4bc7ed0a7bad718420931d5ccffed3f7e647fbe1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 30c | 2,903$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.7 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 606.15$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 583.39$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 343$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 235$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 223$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 8c | 213.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 211.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.59 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 68c | 203.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 5c | 192.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 190.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 187$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 40c | 177.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 65c | 166$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 152.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 10c | 129.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 124.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 117.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 104.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 97.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 92.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 69.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 37c | 48.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 41.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…f380backed No | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 35.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 32.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 35c | 31.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 23.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 58c | 18.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.