TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Lynxof Yellow Submarine, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8681…ef99backed Team Lynx47c4,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.886746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx57c3,570$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.681,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine30c3,168$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.762,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yellow Submarine25c3,117$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.3711150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Lynx43c2,343$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.0623653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx72c2,178$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.942,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Yellow Submarine57c2,161$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.0510551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Lynx45c1,701$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.671,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Yellow Submarine33c1,600$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9612868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed Yellow Submarine54c1,428$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.124235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx54c1,176$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.1647046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx72c1,155$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.751,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Yellow Submarine52c1,121$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.7218954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Yellow Submarine54c1,060$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.5123342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Lynx47c1,056$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.2544645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Yellow Submarine33c872.55$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yellow Submarine40c786.79$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yellow Submarine52c662.13$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.311764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx60c637.66$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.551751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Yellow Submarine54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32412630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx44c599.99$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9956243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yellow Submarine44c553.64$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8751550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Yellow Submarine19c506.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0237223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Yellow Submarine55c496.3$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9734860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine39c470.16$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.842,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx51c400$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.491,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1501…a163backed Team Lynx74c391.39$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.082564%16 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Yellow Submarine20c333.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6457735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Yellow Submarine52c325.54$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2826843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx80c312.55$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed Yellow Submarine56c292.08$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5620452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine52c291.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5197142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2439…7cb3backed Yellow Submarine21c277.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Yellow Submarine37c269.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6820043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx77c261.22$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.921,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yellow Submarine53c225.57$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0771342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx55c223.43$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5736138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Team Lynx59c219.38$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.130647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Yellow Submarine57c205.27$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.019946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Team Lynx48c203.45$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7929240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Yellow Submarine55c200.83$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5634154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked Yellow Submarine50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33f0…b7aebacked Team Lynx65c199.98$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.993652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yellow Submarine53c183.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1816752.7%88 W · 79 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Yellow Submarine57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4214251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx58c167.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.91,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yellow Submarine39c159$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0969033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Yellow Submarine52c156.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.584639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b86…dd8fbacked Yellow Submarine57c153.19$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.821758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa2…0216backed Yellow Submarine64c152.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Team Lynx45c142$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.113152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Yellow Submarine53c115.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2532148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Yellow Submarine43c110$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4736044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine36c109.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0367555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c04…9715backed Team Lynx46c108.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831f…9476backed Team Lynx45c106.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.55541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Team Lynx66c105.38$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8311652.6%61 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Team Lynx47c104.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5722752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Lynx54c103.91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4643049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd572…5510backed Yellow Submarine53c103.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.851435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fd…b019backed Yellow Submarine67c103.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.162166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Yellow Submarine53c102.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.118739.1%34 W · 53 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Yellow Submarine43c101$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1665337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Lynx58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Team Lynx43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579339.8%37 W · 56 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Team Lynx48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5250247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Team Lynx43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5720838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3177…cb28backed Team Lynx48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526749.3%33 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Team Lynx47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.55550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d8…073dbacked Team Lynx47c98.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Yellow Submarine53c98.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0922845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Team Lynx48c96.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3825348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine44c96.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.091,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5583…1fbbbacked Yellow Submarine52c96.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1041…3961backed Yellow Submarine53c91.68$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Team Lynx73c90.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.14346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eae…d46dbacked Yellow Submarine53c80.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.764537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a29…836dbacked Yellow Submarine35c79.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.714165.9%27 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4898…a723backed Yellow Submarine44c78.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.033318.2%6 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x11b5…d0fdbacked Yellow Submarine24c77.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.093240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22d6…b7b5backed Yellow Submarine14c74.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.483342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yellow Submarine48c67.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.241,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca6…2779backed Team Lynx49c59.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Yellow Submarine53c58.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.917954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Yellow Submarine60c58.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7410571.4%75 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed Yellow Submarine53c56.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.918957.3%51 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Yellow Submarine52c56.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1310961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Yellow Submarine26c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8335430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed Yellow Submarine68c50.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3316939.6%67 W · 102 L-15.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Yellow Submarine55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.518347%86 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Yellow Submarine22c49.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7224518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Yellow Submarine33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8535032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yellow Submarine39c41.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.385841.4%24 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Yellow Submarine39c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9120954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7b…66a7backed Yellow Submarine52c35.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x313b…cae3backed Yellow Submarine54c34.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.515052%26 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Yellow Submarine55c33.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.493063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Yellow Submarine55c33.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.491850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x326f…1a19backed Yellow Submarine35c32.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.537456.8%42 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c38…a15abacked Team Lynx66c31.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.671353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.