NHL · resolved market

Kings vs. Stars: O/U 5.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df196d70eff4e5ef905664671fca2de16c77ff738ac89ad7760612583b3dd8c

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,715 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Under	55c	18,280$10,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,230.27	1,345	54.8%737 W · 608 L	+21.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Over	45c	11,208$5,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,043.66	72	36.1%26 W · 46 L	-7.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Under	64c	10,922$7,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,921.93	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	44c	5,999$2,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,610.04	2,894	51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Over	45c	3,327$1,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,497.21	642	42.2%271 W · 371 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	7c	2,322$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.22	2,314	46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	56c	2,289$1,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,018.29	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under	57c	1,756$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.11	472	56.8%268 W · 204 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	45c	1,537$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.15	1,530	51.7%791 W · 739 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	43c	1,406$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.58	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Over	45c	1,111$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	107	46.7%50 W · 57 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	44c	1,099$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.71	514	52.3%269 W · 245 L	+17.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	45c	792.65$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.17	939	53.6%503 W · 436 L	+29.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	43c	663.03$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.98	728	47.9%349 W · 379 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	44c	620$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.8	1,441	49.2%709 W · 732 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	49c	509.1$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.46	288	42%121 W · 167 L	-12.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	43c	500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	43c	421.06$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.06	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over	46c	413.04$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	253	58.5%148 W · 105 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4662…807ebacked Under	56c	309.77$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.97	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under	55c	300$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	353	49.6%175 W · 178 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under	56c	200$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	684	49.9%341 W · 343 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Under	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	366	52.7%193 W · 173 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Over	44c	199.98$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.99	122	50.8%62 W · 60 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Under	53c	190.98$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.76	1,377	49.1%676 W · 701 L	+39.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	45c	177.78$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Under	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	75	53.3%40 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	45c	158.67$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.4	484	52.3%253 W · 231 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Under	57c	140.35$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.35	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-8.5wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	43c	125$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	43c	125$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	605	49.3%298 W · 307 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	47c	114$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.58	1,024	48.4%496 W · 528 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	45c	108$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	216	48.1%104 W · 112 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	43c	75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	43c	75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Over	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-9.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x042e…f947backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Under	56c	48.21$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.21	214	54.2%116 W · 98 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	43c	46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	232	49.1%114 W · 118 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	43c	46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	792	51.1%405 W · 387 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0efe…df51backed Over	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	43c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	583	46.5%271 W · 312 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	132	46.2%61 W · 71 L	-8.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd45e…f11dbacked Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	43c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	481	49.3%237 W · 244 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	43c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Over	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	68c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	1,140	51.5%587 W · 553 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	68c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	629	51.2%322 W · 307 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b0e…7e25backed Over	45c	22.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-5.6wins	-0.16per pick	53cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	696	53.4%372 W · 324 L	-16.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…bdddbacked Under	55c	18.2$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-7.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Under	58c	17.42$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	490	53.7%263 W · 227 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Kings vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
Kings vs. StarsStars won
Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kings vs. Stars: O/U 5.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event