Earnings · resolved market
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df67128e0f9188b2f6604dada0a377a05996ef3f3a2bcbf5e0470ec15e47014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 23c | 3,394$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.92 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 71c | 2,283$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.69 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 56c | 1,262$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.9 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 49c | 746$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.44 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 40c | 360.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 73c | 218.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed No | 73c | 212.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 54c | 174.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…8604backed No | 76c | 170$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 7c | 162.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 63c | 139.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 31c | 111.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 109.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 25c | 106.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 66c | 101.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 80.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 79.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 25c | 78.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 29c | 78.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked Yes | 39c | 75.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 69c | 74.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 26c | 70.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 58.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 23c | 57.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 35c | 53.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39cd…1889backed Yes | 31c | 52.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…0158backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 33c | 43.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed Yes | 30c | 40.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed No | 72c | 30.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed No | 69c | 23.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.