Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f40e0dc9c209663434b426585c80ab37c201157a48be66bd7b849f09135e56e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Nigma Galaxy, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 27,221$5,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,897.49 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8a…8a18backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 25,861$8,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,534.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Nigma Galaxy | 5c | 16,905$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.15 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 72c | 10,293$7,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.9 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Aurora | 67c | 7,777$5,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,566.41 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 69c | 7,423$5,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 7,040$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Aurora | 68c | 7,000$4,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.69 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 6,264$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora | 67c | 6,012$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.3 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…b46bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 72c | 4,687$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.19 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 67c | 4,478$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.61 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Aurora | 71c | 3,932$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.4 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 3,643$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.16 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Aurora | 79c | 3,508$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.78 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…5667backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 3,338$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 3,291$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.49 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Aurora | 80c | 3,144$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.48 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 67c | 3,052$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.75 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…0c7cbacked Aurora | 67c | 2,900$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora | 73c | 2,740$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.24 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 76c | 2,700$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.08 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 2,634$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.74 | 303 | 36.6%111 W · 192 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 2,631$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Nigma Galaxy | 2c | 2,512$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Aurora | 71c | 2,342$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.73 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…b615backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 2,072$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.23 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…d67dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 2,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora | 73c | 1,874$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.11 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 1,828$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…d1a4backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 242 | 55%133 W · 109 L | +14.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 1,761$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.21 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 1,750$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.21 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora | 73c | 1,700$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 1,695$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.3 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora | 80c | 1,650$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.9 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 77c | 1,563$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora | 67c | 1,557$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.25 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 1,502$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.19 | 286 | 41.3%118 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Aurora | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 207 | 67.1%139 W · 68 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…3a17backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 1,436$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Aurora | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 1,417$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.61 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…d152backed Aurora | 73c | 1,398$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.45 | 211 | 58.3%123 W · 88 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora | 73c | 1,369$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.65 | 351 | 51.3%180 W · 171 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 1,215$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.01 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 1,209$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora | 78c | 1,187$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.13 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 73c | 1,099$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.72 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Aurora | 72c | 1,041$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.48 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 921 | 56.5%520 W · 401 L | +78.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 75c | 977.52$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.38 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…1b71backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 971.34$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 74c | 955$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…1ccebacked Aurora | 73c | 900$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 899.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 899.66$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.27 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Aurora | 74c | 865.47$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 77c | 780$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Aurora | 70c | 770$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…563dbacked Aurora | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 687.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 649.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…40cabacked Aurora | 76c | 617.96$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 59 | 76.3%45 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Aurora | 67c | 605.95$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Nigma Galaxy | 9c | 599.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 555.68$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.77 | 937 | 46.3%434 W · 503 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Aurora | 72c | 554.78$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.63 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 554$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Aurora | 67c | 542.72$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.1 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…36fcbacked Aurora | 67c | 531.34$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 509.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.61 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…9e83backed Aurora | 79c | 505.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 184 | 46.7%86 W · 98 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 805 | 43.9%353 W · 452 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Aurora | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Aurora | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 494.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 956 | 42.1%402 W · 554 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 79c | 494$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…64fbbacked Aurora | 67c | 491.66$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 474.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora | 66c | 465.81$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.37 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 72c | 461.11$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Aurora | 76c | 451.65$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Aurora | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 447.06$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 321 | 37.1%119 W · 202 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Aurora | 77c | 444$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Aurora | 80c | 439.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4620…ea85backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 439.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…e867backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 427.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…e2c4backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 425$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.