Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fcd3b02f2a7e6bf0a440ba0e33e1a07b7acb54c9dc4b8b77ffd4ad6c2c78c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Under | 1c | 6,989$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 13c | 4,131$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.02 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 3,868$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.9 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 13c | 3,706$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 12c | 1,926$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 9c | 1,414$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 950.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 5c | 845.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +169.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Under | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…8e52backed Under | 14c | 693.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 75c | 500.17$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.11 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 23c | 456.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 24c | 319.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 808 | 53.6%433 W · 375 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfc…07b0backed Over | 77c | 240.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 67cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 80c | 172.51$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 24c | 164.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 76c | 131.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Over | 77c | 123.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Under | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…0551backed Over | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 14c | 79.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…4d8cbacked Over | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 23c | 62.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 696 | 51.1%356 W · 340 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…60b0backed Over | 77c | 57.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 77c | 42.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…5305backed Under | 26c | 40.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Over | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…152dbacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…e5f4backed Over | 76c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.