Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa670224319bd427579d983d98f1b98ab02f2b857ae07a4f68e29e1186621678f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, Fulham FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 3,920$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,169.64 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arsenal FC | 35c | 3,236$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.06 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fulham FC | 2c | 1,382$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 30c | 1,123$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.97 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Fulham FC | 72c | 1,013$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Arsenal FC | 18c | 592.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.01 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Fulham FC | 68c | 437.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Fulham FC | 15c | 405.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…d11dbacked Fulham FC | 62c | 340.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.79 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arsenal FC | 42c | 298.96$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 263.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 562 | 41.5%233 W · 329 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 232.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 598 | 47.7%285 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arsenal FC | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Fulham FC | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Fulham FC | 80c | 193.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 560 | 51.4%288 W · 272 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 183.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Arsenal FC | 56c | 178.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Fulham FC | 25c | 148.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC | 34c | 126.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Fulham FC | 19c | 122.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Fulham FC | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Arsenal FC | 54c | 92.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Arsenal FC | 49c | 87.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Arsenal FC | 35c | 87.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Fulham FC | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Fulham FC | 67c | 74.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Arsenal FC | 32c | 45.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Arsenal FC | 49c | 33.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fulham FC | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…a134backed Fulham FC | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.