Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc688323978908cc3d7eb6a7c62b86b86014a7e76f39ba11d211fec58d031db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 48c | 3,432$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.61 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 2,308$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.76 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ca12backed Under | 53c | 2,211$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,886$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.03 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 46c | 999.98$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 13c | 896.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Over | 49c | 780.63$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…0711backed Under | 53c | 629.58$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Under | 53c | 562.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.68 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…8da4backed Under | 53c | 499.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 55c | 446.06$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 445.48$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 51c | 395.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.81 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Over | 48c | 384.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 329.31$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 314.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 13c | 249.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 25c | 230.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Over | 52c | 194.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 56c | 180.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 24c | 180.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 192 | 44.3%85 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Over | 12c | 178.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 26c | 174.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 13c | 168$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 14c | 164.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…f790backed Over | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Under | 53c | 129.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 80c | 125.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 40c | 123.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 16c | 117.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +13.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 77c | 104.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 47c | 100.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 14c | 96.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…49a7backed Over | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 32c | 84.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Over | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 76.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 69c | 72.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 36c | 67.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Under | 52c | 67.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…3d0fbacked Over | 47c | 65.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 47c | 63.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 56.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ee…bc1abacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…61a9backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 25c | 48.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…94edbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 46c | 39.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…4d8cbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Under | 76c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.