Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff1189cfbe7be65144606fb68a8b6021177166d7df1c52629b541d26ca9a483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 14c | 2,865$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.7 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,753$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 8c | 1,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,160$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 27c | 786.45$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 650.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 12c | 554.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Yes | 48c | 400$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 63c | 387.82$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…8933backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 69c | 287.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked No | 36c | 245.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 11c | 157$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed No | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 52c | 133.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 23c | 113.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Yes | 25c | 112.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 101.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 52c | 99.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 55c | 91.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd531…d18bbacked Yes | 69c | 83.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 70c | 72.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…7b58backed Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 22c | 51.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 51c | 51.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 79c | 48.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 45.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…4e7fbacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed No | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…789cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 28.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…3c80backed Yes | 66c | 16.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on December 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.