Us Politics · resolved market
Trump opens Arctic Wildlife Refuge for drilling in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901f605f8a0cacfbecd7c382afb4d66f7a2463cb4a96b97a29628400ee8bfe6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,817$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.92 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 1c | 1,750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 30c | 1,079$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.27 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 29c | 1,002$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.45 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 7c | 800$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 723.91$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 71c | 448$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 3c | 367.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 13c | 279.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 70c | 257$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 20c | 249.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 69c | 226.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed No | 28c | 126.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 25c | 96.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 74c | 88.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2a…0f9abacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 75c | 35.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7551…8871backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.