TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9256…2e8bbacked No76c10,548$7,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,563.188161.7%50 W · 31 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No60c8,775$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,494.6776137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fd7…577abacked Yes37c5,849$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…ad18backed No71c5,589$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+309.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes27c4,861$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1a…51a6backed Yes2c4,338$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes36c3,223$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…5fc1backed Yes53c2,510$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ad…8722backed No69c1,458$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No67c1,104$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.445431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes41c1,081$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44080%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba51…ff35backed Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3902544%11 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No69c999.98$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31013432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes23c973.94$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.168012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No74c680.97$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8173…1054backed Yes32c622.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0b…776cbacked Yes39c498.31$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5708…52e5backed Yes28c421.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…4547backed No79c381.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.292626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed No74c371.26$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.248541.2%35 W · 50 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x816a…e031backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc4…21f5backed Yes34c330.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1712…69b5backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes24c300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7321861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes23c281.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.854454.5%24 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c267.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.229024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes23c252.17$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c225.36$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1246314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7698…9c54backed Yes32c221.37$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes27c216.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3511032.7%36 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6504…6bbbbacked Yes26c200.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10267442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0cd…45abbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes24c187.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.83837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc951…8ab4backed Yes36c175.24$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes30c172.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7721820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No74c160.65$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.98666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes33c152.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb7…339dbacked Yes38c152.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.961233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No65c152.13$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.835156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No53c150.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3611723.1%27 W · 90 L-18.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.520729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456016.7%10 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb453…c257backed No68c146.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes21c144.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.779016.7%15 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf006…1b00backed No72c139.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes36c138.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+136.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.146100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x897c…a4adbacked Yes33c120.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb65…abe8backed Yes34c102.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Yes52c102$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes30c100.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305474.1%40 W · 14 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5133025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011860.2%71 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710760.7%65 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…8bdebacked No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd5…32f8backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210272.5%74 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbd…7dc6backed No63c99.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8598…199fbacked No71c98.85$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.851855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.23327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8bab…4f17backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.213235.6%47 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed Yes22c79.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.817441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb9b…a49fbacked No71c78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0534…14fcbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.735635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b17…aa89backed Yes20c69.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd77e…6adcbacked Yes52c68.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5817…9306backed No75c67.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c63.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3657939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba16…d417backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…613fbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4151…7283backed No74c59.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.43862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No66c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.723447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes35c57.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fc2…687ebacked No77c57.59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.251662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…c502backed Yes39c54.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb17…ea36backed Yes33c51.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e2…7b24backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-5.1wins-0.32per pick63cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes38c51.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.467731.2%24 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2618941.3%78 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb735…4060backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c49.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7226334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b4…9518backed Yes55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…a303backed Yes36c44.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+59.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed Yes36c43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.482552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb283…7019backed Yes28c40.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd150…5983backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes49c40.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208058.8%47 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc033…859bbacked Yes63c39.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5908…cbc1backed No53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+92%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No72c35.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.941145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ee…fe93backed Yes36c35.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked Yes62c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe90…6c53backed Yes30c34.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.