NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908708c84775cfd0f829cb9d50e3d0880d9448c4425f35fbb0ecdf00f221217d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Bears, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Steelers | 56c | 23,421$13,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,293.84 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Bears | 44c | 13,087$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.88 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Steelers | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bears | 44c | 7,679$3,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,378.57 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Bears | 44c | 7,531$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.19 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Steelers | 61c | 5,966$3,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.14 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Bears | 45c | 5,396$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.2 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 39c | 5,380$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.82 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 43c | 4,847$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.01 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca91…978cbacked Bears | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Steelers | 56c | 4,537$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.49 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Bears | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Bears | 42c | 3,835$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.26 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Steelers | 55c | 3,775$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.54 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Steelers | 57c | 3,720$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.6 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers | 56c | 3,080$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…45aebacked Steelers | 58c | 2,512$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 43c | 2,310$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.65 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bears | 41c | 2,211$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.64 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bears | 43c | 2,027$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.29 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Steelers | 59c | 2,000$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Bears | 44c | 1,404$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.56 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Bears | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Steelers | 56c | 1,013$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.47 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Steelers | 56c | 937$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.28 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Steelers | 57c | 863.4$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.26 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Steelers | 55c | 845.45$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.45 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 43c | 802$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.86 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Steelers | 55c | 730$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Steelers | 59c | 720.67$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bears | 24c | 641.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…b832backed Steelers | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Steelers | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bears | 42c | 476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Bears | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Steelers | 58c | 438.73$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.27 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Bears | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Steelers | 58c | 294.83$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Steelers | 54c | 260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Steelers | 59c | 252.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Steelers | 56c | 252$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Steelers | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bears | 22c | 244.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bears | 39c | 225$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Steelers | 57c | 201.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Steelers | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Steelers | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Steelers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Steelers | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…edf8backed Bears | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Steelers | 58c | 141.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Steelers | 57c | 134.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Steelers | 56c | 105.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Steelers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked Steelers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Steelers | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Bears | 43c | 58.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Bears | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Bears | 44c | 48.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Bears | 44c | 34.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf9…086cbacked Steelers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Steelers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Steelers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Steelers | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Steelers | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…fc7ebacked Steelers | 58c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Steelers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…2dd7backed Steelers | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Steelers vs. BearsBears won
- Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.