NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f69d76c50c2b2a350e1d17cf2db128abf9e281b1866f86605170d3dbb96be2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 53c | 2,994$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 1,535$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.91 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 55c | 1,357$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.02 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Over | 56c | 964.29$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 56c | 895.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.39 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 850.95$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.34 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 52c | 815.53$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.46 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 682$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.72 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 677$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.96 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 52c | 534$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.68 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 509$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.26 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 500$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 48c | 485$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.45 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 297.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Over | 55c | 221$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 206$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 48c | 179$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Under | 46c | 167.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 163.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 54.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 41.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…559bbacked Under | 53c | 37.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 47c | 30.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…5364backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5this page
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. BearsBears won
- Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.