TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bears (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Bears, Steelers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bears53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,50011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bears53c48,032$25,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,575.116764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Steelers47c42,800$20,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,1161136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Bears52c30,340$15,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,563.116860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Steelers47c27,965$13,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,216.6121254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Steelers47c25,000$11,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,809.3644652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Steelers48c15,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.9311649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Steelers48c13,122$6,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,276.291,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Bears52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.9914450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Steelers47c7,982$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,788.7114252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x753b…3d0fbacked Steelers45c5,592$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,516.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e1…4976backed Bears55c5,558$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.261050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Steelers48c5,371$2,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,578.1686547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bears51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bears52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Steelers47c4,260$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.25248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bears53c3,054$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.647348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Bears51c2,858$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.85550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Steelers49c2,134$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04011255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Steelers48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8414035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Steelers49c2,024$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Bears52c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97014945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Steelers48c1,862$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.838551.8%44 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Steelers49c1,799$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.393638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Bears52c1,743$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.465724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Steelers49c1,714$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8403138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Steelers49c1,573$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.9153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Bears51c1,200$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5942040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Steelers48c1,163$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.4754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Bears51c1,140$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.561758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Steelers47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Steelers48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Steelers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Bears55c913.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.0716351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Steelers50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Steelers48c722$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.5214641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Steelers47c679.64$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.6283447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Bears52c673.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.088747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Bears42c592.57$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.586934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Steelers48c562.6$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1336341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Bears53c550$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.518650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bears55c549.22$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.2212550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Steelers44c535.71$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.7115044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Bears53c528.3$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Steelers47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23523647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Bears50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2507731.2%24 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Bears51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24518744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Bears52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7711156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers47c460.08$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.241,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Steelers47c440.37$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6175852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c05…4902backed Bears53c438.8$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Steelers45c414.62$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.584847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Bears52c411.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6415746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Steelers49c404.08$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19814154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Bears53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18826857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Bears52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6217548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Bears50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506030%18 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Bears53c282.34$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.711740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Steelers48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.855345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Steelers50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Bears52c208$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.848650%43 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Steelers76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Bears51c199.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.996225.8%16 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Bears52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3111744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2203…e5a1backed Bears52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Bears53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.683946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Steelers48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6565048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bears53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.56650%33 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Steelers49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.524547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Bears54c138.89$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.898956.2%50 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Steelers48c132.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.73948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Steelers48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Steelers47c124.44$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4928337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Steelers48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.624352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bears53c107.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4441450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…3280backed Steelers48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93b1…934ebacked Steelers49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0417…a072backed Steelers49c101.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503250%16 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Steelers48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4827835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Bears52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4822745.4%103 W · 124 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Steelers47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478047.5%38 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d0e…7432backed Bears53c93.4$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1228…c4fabacked Bears52c80.38$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf1…6ae0backed Bears52c76.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9038…f74cbacked Steelers48c75.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.276139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Bears51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.38361.4%51 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadc8…80edbacked Steelers48c60.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6b…e839backed Steelers48c60.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked Bears54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.66753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf909…2b17backed Bears51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Bears51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8216940.8%69 W · 100 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf06…a405backed Steelers48c58.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked Bears53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd31f…a480backed Bears53c56.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Steelers46c55.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5639242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6092…5cf3backed Bears53c55.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf03…a7aabacked Steelers48c52.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd647…1377backed Steelers48c51.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…13c0backed Bears53c50.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.