MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90a898b970f693ffc25c1fee39318f1cd197c6daebde58f2a6ae0d91491eeb61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 14,994$9,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,718.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 9,090$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,107.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 4,568$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.48 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 3,100$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 3,092$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 1,156$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 1,135$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 743.91$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 468.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.02 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 397.76$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.08 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 349.41$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 307.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 292$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 263.63$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 220$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 197.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 115.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 114.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 73.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 72.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 60.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 53.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 43.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…e5aebacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 38.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 37.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 37.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 37.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 35.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 18.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.