MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa137bc5784112147b442595fc79b2ff724d843a2b59c2bcbcb796b47102c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 8,265$5,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 7,625$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 57c | 6,225$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.65 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 43c | 5,814$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 2,114$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.29 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 56c | 1,959$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.94 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 1,826$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.58 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 1,562$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.94 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 1,024$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Over | 37c | 617$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.29 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 563$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 37c | 432$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 319.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 255.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 37c | 186.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 37c | 106$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 66c | 105.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 55c | 75.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 74.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 57c | 66.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 57.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 57c | 56.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 57c | 52.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 34.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 67c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.