MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81904c3486865c9aa699eb6a198dfb9a4c07b9035ce2649c9cba4c6b5dda8d24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 35,102$16,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,124.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Over | 51c | 16,264$8,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,294.39 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 3,906$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 52c | 3,900$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 3,565$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Over | 32c | 2,754$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.82 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over | 30c | 2,447$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.93 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 1,706$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.12 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 1,636$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 1,631$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 1,424$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 1,183$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 52c | 580.01$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.61 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 65c | 486.12$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 417.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.39 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 50c | 399.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 389.39$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 49c | 306.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 261.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 243.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 238.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 49c | 204.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 73c | 187.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 45c | 187.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 177$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 40c | 172$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 49c | 163.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 49c | 153.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 40c | 127.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 69c | 125.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 28c | 110.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 55c | 107.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 59c | 99.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 57c | 93.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 53c | 85.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 16c | 80.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 52c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 73.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 68.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 76c | 65.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 71c | 60.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Under | 62c | 52.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 36c | 52.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 61c | 42.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 40c | 36.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 61c | 28.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 61c | 28.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 48c | 24.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 55c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…f028backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.