MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc52c9330667423fdb7a65fd99492d1cf677edba7419cc7bd02544e149a50ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 12,344$6,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,925.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 10,972$4,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,157.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 1,515$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 1,188$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.98 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,023$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 940.19$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.31 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 894$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.64 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 664.45$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 640$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 577.07$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.57 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 551.84$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.55 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 527.97$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 490.69$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.93 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 424.04$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 313.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.88 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 289.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 289.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 243.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 215$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 211$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 140.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 137.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 128.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 99.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 68.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 46.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 42.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 32.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 31.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…ce2dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 29.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 27.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 24.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 22.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.